Tracking intended nationally determined contributions: what are the implications for greenhouse gas emissions in 2030?

Headline issue: Countries agreed at the 20th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP20) in Lima, Peru, in December 2014 to set out their intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) during the first quarter of 2015, ahead of COP21 in Paris, France, in December 2015. As of 20 July 2015, 46 countries, including the 28 Member States of the European Union, have submitted INDCs to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This policy paper considers whether the INDCs submitted so far are consistent with the 2°C limit. It finds that, whilst the INDCs represent progress compared with a ‘business as usual’ global emissions pathway, there is a gap between current ambitions and the actions that need to be taken to limit a rise in global average temperature to no more than 2°C above pre-industrial level. Key findings: The INDCs submitted as of 20 July 2015 would lead to annual global emissions in 2030 of 56.9 to 59.1 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2030. This is much higher than the 36 billion tonnes that the United Nations Environment Programme has indicated would be consistent with having a 50 to 66 per cent chance of avoiding a rise in global average temperature of more than 2°C above its pre-industrial level. The INDCs also fall well short of the global emissions target of 42 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2030, in the scenario that technologies – such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) – can create significant ‘negative emissions’. The authors also reiterate the findings of a previous paper that countries should focus on four key ways to increase the ambitions of emissions cuts both before and after the Paris summit: Hard work is needed over the next few months by all countries to find credible ways of achieving bigger emissions reductions which can be included in pledges to be submitted before the Paris summit, or achieved through additional efforts by partnerships, for example, through specific decarbonisation initiatives among willing countries. An intensification of efforts to increase investment and innovation – particularly in relation to the development of cities, energy systems and land use – could help to close the gap between countries intentions and the emissions reduction goal before and after 2030. A mechanism should be included in the agreement emerging from the Paris summit in December so that countries can review their efforts and find ways of ramping up the ambition of their emissions reductions by 2030 and beyond. Concerted efforts are needed by all countries to build the strong and transparent domestic base necessary for the implementation of their pledges. This should set them on a path to decarbonisation and enable them to ramp up their ambitions

The road to Paris and beyond

Headline issue: Effective international cooperation can help the world develop along a 2°C pathway and adapt to the climatic changes already locked-in as a result of past and ongoing greenhouse gas emissions. It can also help countries seize the many opportunities and benefits associated with the transition to a low-carbon economy. The United Nations climate change conference in Paris at the end of 2015 is an important opportunity to advance toward those objectives. The French Government, which will host the Paris summit, has indicated that it will seek a ‘Paris Climate Alliance’ as an outcome, based on four aspects: A universal legal agreement, applicable to all countries National commitments covering control and reduction of emissions A financial and technology aspect aimed at scaling up finance and technology for climate change mitigation and adaptation while guaranteeing international solidarity with the most vulnerable countries An ‘Agenda of Solutions’ aimed at implementing accelerators to ensure more ambitious progress, above and beyond binding commitments. The legal agreement that is emerging is a hybrid agreement, involving a mix of centralised and decentralised, binding and non-binding elements. The agreement will be associated with ‘intended nationally determined contributions’ (INDCs) by countries to restrain and reduce emissions, the achievement of which will be non-binding internationally. The agreement is also likely to involve centralised, common processes to ensure the transparency of countries’ efforts and. It is widely hoped, that the agreement will also include a review-and-revision process for countries to increase the ambition of their commitments regularly over time (e.g. every five years). Yet, many obstacles remain on the road to Paris, and on the longer pathway toward an effective and equitable response to climate change. Key findings: International climate cooperation should be organised around: The long-term objective of achieving net zero emissions within the second half of this century Associated medium-term goals including the decarbonisation of electricity by mid-century and, well before mid-century, the phasing out of unabated coal-fired electricity generation It is appropriate to interpret the principle of equity (contained in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) of “common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities” (CBDR) in a dynamic, collaborative, and opportunity-focused way. The Paris agreement should contain dynamic elements that enable ambition to be raised over time, including a regular (e.g. five-yearly) review-and-revision process. Countries should be encouraged and assisted to develop domestic institutions, laws, policies, and political configurations that are conducive to: Increasing ambition Seizing opportunities for better growth Implementing commitments effectively Around US$6 trillion per year will need to be spent globally, and mostly in developing and emerging market countries, on infrastructure over the next 15 years. The climate finance being mobilised through the UNFCCC’s Paris process should be structured in a way that is complementary to the Sustainable Development Goals finance. International coordination on low-carbon innovation should include: Coordinated scale-up of national expenditure on research and development New public-private regional networks for the development and demonstration of new and locally-adapted technologies and processes Scaled-up public venture capital for innovative clean technology firms Better global coordination of clean energy deployment suppor

Intended nationally determined contributions: what are the implications for greenhouse gas emissions in 2030?

The analysis presented here considers whether the INDCs that were submitted by 23 October 2015 are consistent with a reasonable chance of not exceeding the 2°C warming limit. As of 23 October 2015, 154 countries (including the 28 Member States of the European Union) had submitted INDCs, including pledges to limit or reduce annual national emissions after 2020. These 154 countries were together responsible for over 85% of global annual emissions of greenhouse gases, and represented over 90% of global gross domestic product (GDP), in 2012. Based on our analysis we conclude that there has been progress compared with hypothetical ‘business as usual’ global emissions pathways. However there is a gap between the emissions pathway that would result from current ambitions and plans, including those goals outlined by the submitted INDCs, and a pathway that is consistent with a reasonable chance of limiting the rise in global average temperature to no more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels. The most optimistic estimate of global emissions in 2030 resulting from the INDCs is about halfway between hypothetical ‘business as usual’ and a pathway that is consistent with the 2°C limit. Consequently, countries should be considering opportunities to narrow the gap before and after the COP21 summit in Pa

Beyond Social Disorganization Theory: The Influence of Multiple Structural Determinants of Crime on an Urban Community

This correlational, explanatory, cross-sectional study explains the influence of neighborhoods’ structural determinants on the rate of violent crimes in New York City’s communities. Guided by the theoretical foundation of social disorganization theory, the variables in this study included the economically disadvantaged, racial/ethnic heterogeneity, residential instability/mobility, and the level of educational attainment. The statistical analysis in this study included correlational matrix and simultaneous multiple regression model (ordinary least squares). The study consisted of 59 New York City community districts (encompassing the City’s population of 8,622,698 residents) and included the violent crime rates for 2017. The findings in this study indicated that the level of the community’s economically disadvantaged and residential instability/mobility does influence the rate of violent crimes in New York City communities. Conversely, racial/ethnic heterogeneity and the level of educational attainment did not influence the rate of violent crime in New York City communities. The findings suggest that more resources should be directed to address poverty within communities with high rates of violent crime

What will global annual emissions of greenhouse gases be in 2030, and will they be consistent with avoiding global warming of more than 2°C?

Headline issue: Countries agreed at the 20th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP20) in Lima, Peru, in December 2014 to set out their “intended nationally determined contributions” (INDCs) during the first quarter of 2015, ahead of COP21 in Paris, France, in December 2015. As of 30 April 2015, 35 countries, including the 28 Member States of the European Union, have submitted INDCs. In addition, China has already provided some indication of what may be included in its INDC. This policy paper describes the preliminary calculation of what global annual emissions in 2030 could be, based on the INDCs and announcements by some of the largest emitters: the European Union, the United States and China. It finds that the current ambitions and plans of countries are not consistent with the international goal of avoiding global warming of more than 2°C. Key findings: Countries should focus on four key ways to increase the ambitions of emissions cuts both before and after the Paris summit: Hard work is needed over the next few months by all countries to find credible ways of achieving bigger emissions reductions which can be included in pledges to be submitted before the Paris summit, or achieved through additional efforts by partnerships, for example, through specific decarbonisation initiatives among willing countries. An intensification of efforts to increase investment and innovation – particularly in relation to the development of cities, energy systems and land use – could help to close the gap between countries intentions and the emissions reduction goal before and after 2030. A mechanism should be included in the agreement emerging from the Paris summit in December so that countries can review their efforts and find ways of ramping up the ambition of their emissions reductions by 2030 and beyond. Concerted efforts are needed by all countries to build the strong and transparent domestic base necessary for the implementation of their pledges. This should set them on a path to decarbonisation and enable them to ramp up their ambitions

Resonant electron transmission through a finite quantum spin chain

Electron transport in a finite one dimensional quantum spin chain (with ferromagnetic exchange) is studied within an $s-d$ exchange Hamiltonian. Spin transfer coefficients strongly depend on the sign of the $s-d$ exchange constant. For a ferromagnetic coupling, they exhibit a novel resonant pattern, reflecting the salient features of the combined electron-spin system. Spin-flip processes are inelastic and feasible at finite voltage or at finite temperature.Comment: 4 pages including 4 .eps figure

Innovation, risk and government: perspectives and principles from the social sciences

Headline Issue: The infrastructure created by humans and the natural infrastructure of the planet are both vital for our survival and wellbeing. It is only possible for more than seven billion people to inhabit the Earth because of our ability to modify our environment. We achieved this by creating social and physical structures, and by discovering how to harness the fossil energy sources of the planet to power our modern world. But in spite of all our innovation and ingenuity we are still critically dependent on our natural infrastructure, on our interactions with animal and plant health, on weather, climate and all the other aspects of the physical and biological environment of the planet. At the same time as we were learning how to modify our physical environment to improve our living conditions, we were building social and economic structures. We are as dependent on these as on our built environment. Modern economies were developed through politics, trade and specialization, shaped from time to time by war and conflict. The Industrial Revolution of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries started in Great Britain, and we are now going through a second equally tumultuous revolution — the Information Technology Revolution — which is likely to play a similarly important role in the development of societies and economies of the future. In Chapter 1 of the UK Government Chief Scientific Adviser’s annual report for 2014, “Innovation: Managing Risk, Not Avoiding It. Evidence and Case Studies”, the authors describe how many of the greatest periods of economic growth in the past have been driven by innovation. Indeed, the need to innovate is a fundamental requirement for social and economic progress. By providing a social science point of view, it is clear that there is a delicate interplay between innovation and risk, and the social interactions between public and private sectors that are critical in fostering innovation and determining its effectiveness. Innovation is essential for economic growth, health, wellbeing, security and resilience. Key messages: Innovative economies are more competitive, respond better to change, see higher returns on investment and create increased living standards. Innovative businesses are more productive and grow faster than businesses that fail to innovate. Yet it is not only businesses that must innovate: governments and social organisations need to innovate to adapt, respond to and shape the evolution of society. Governments have an essential role in shaping the legal frameworks, institutions and policies that in turn shape the risks and incentives faced by others. It is this balance of risks and incentives that determine what choices innovators, entrepreneurs, investors, inventors, bureaucrats and citizens will make. In the UK, innovation will continue to be a key source, perhaps the key source, of economic growth. However, competition is becoming ever more fierce, vital global resources are dwindling, and environmental problems are mounting, making innovation an ever-present challenge. Indeed, there is some evidence to suggest that the UK is falling behind many of its major trade competitors when it comes to research and development, which is closely linked to innovation

Renewable Electric Energy Integration: Quantifying the Value of Design of Markets for International Transmission Capacity

Integrating large quantities of supply-driven renewable electricity generation remains a political and operational challenge. One of the main obstacles in Europe to installing at least 200 GWs of power from variable renewable sources is how to deal with the insufficient network capacity and the congestion that will result from new flow patterns. We model the current methodology for controlling congestion at international borders and compare its results, under varying penetrations of wind power, with a model that simulates an integrated European network that utilises nodal/localised marginal pricing. The nodal pricing simulations illustrate that congestion - and price - patterns vary considerably between wind scenarios and within countries, and that a nodal price regime could make fuller use of existing EU network capacity, introducing substantial operational cost savings and reducing marginal power prices in the majority of European countries.Power market design, renewable power integration, congestion management, transmission economics

2017 Proceedings: Exercise Your Faith

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